IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Western Michigan
Mid-American
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	-4.6	#238
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	67.2	#230
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.9	#256

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.7	#222

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.8%	5.1%	1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.3	13.3	14.5

.500 or above	17.0%	42.8%	15.7%
.500 or above in Conference	22.1%	42.8%	21.0%
Conference Champion	1.6%	4.5%	1.4%
Last Place in Conference	29.7%	14.4%	30.5%

First Four	0.3%	0.2%	0.3%
First Round	1.7%	4.9%	1.5%
Second Round	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Butler (Away) - 5.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 4	1 - 6
Quad 3	3 - 8	4 - 14
Quad 4	6 - 4	9 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	51	@ Butler	L	57-74	5%
Dec 02, 2020	70	@ Notre Dame	L	64-80	7%
Dec 06, 2020	10	@ Michigan St.	L	61-84	2%
Dec 12, 2020	272	Wisconsin-Milwaukee	W	74-69	67%
Dec 12, 2020	295	IUPUI	W	78-75	61%
Dec 13, 2020	245	Detroit Mercy	W	76-73	61%
Dec 22, 2020	207	Central Michigan	W	79-78	56%
Jan 02, 2021	137	Toledo	L	70-73	39%
Jan 05, 2021	130	@ Ball St.	L	63-73	20%
Jan 09, 2021	172	@ Kent St.	L	68-75	28%
Jan 12, 2021	116	Buffalo	L	75-80	33%
Jan 16, 2021	179	Miami (OH)	L	69-70	48%
Jan 19, 2021	160	@ Eastern Michigan	L	62-70	26%
Jan 23, 2021	126	Akron	L	70-74	36%
Jan 26, 2021	134	@ Ohio	L	66-75	22%
Jan 30, 2021	179	@ Miami (OH)	L	66-73	28%
Feb 02, 2021	189	Northern Illinois	W	67-66	51%
Feb 06, 2021	146	@ Bowling Green	L	70-79	24%
Feb 09, 2021	116	@ Buffalo	L	72-83	18%
Feb 13, 2021	134	Ohio	L	69-72	39%
Feb 16, 2021	172	Kent St.	L	71-72	48%
Feb 20, 2021	207	@ Central Michigan	L	76-81	36%
Feb 23, 2021	130	Ball St.	L	66-70	38%
Feb 27, 2021	137	@ Toledo	L	67-76	22%
Mar 02, 2021	189	@ Northern Illinois	L	63-69	31%
Mar 05, 2021	160	Eastern Michigan	L	65-67	44%
Projected Record						9 - 17	7 - 13

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mid-American Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0		1.6	1st
2nd												0.0	0.2	0.7	0.7	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0				2.4	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.4	1.1	1.1	0.5	0.1	0.0						3.1	3rd
4th										0.0	0.3	1.4	1.8	0.7	0.1	0.0							4.3	4th
5th										0.3	1.5	2.3	0.7	0.1									4.8	5th
6th								0.0	0.3	1.9	2.9	1.1	0.1										6.3	6th
7th							0.0	0.3	1.6	3.8	1.6	0.2	0.0										7.5	7th
8th						0.0	0.3	1.9	4.1	2.2	0.2	0.0											8.7	8th
9th					0.0	0.4	2.2	4.6	2.9	0.4	0.0												10.6	9th
10th				0.1	0.9	3.0	5.0	3.2	0.7	0.0	0.0												12.9	10th
11th		0.0	0.5	2.0	4.6	5.2	3.0	0.8	0.1	0.0													16.1	11th
12th	1.0	2.9	4.9	5.7	4.6	2.0	0.5	0.0															21.7	12th

Total	1.0	2.9	5.4	7.8	10.1	10.6	10.9	10.8	9.6	8.7	6.6	5.3	3.9	2.7	1.6	1.1	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0			Total

Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
18-2	99.2%	0.1		0.1	0.0
17-3	91.2%	0.3		0.2	0.0	0.0
16-4	65.6%	0.3		0.3	0.1	0.0
15-5	35.5%	0.4		0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0
14-6	19.0%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
13-7	4.1%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.1%	0.0			0.0			0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	1.6%	1.6		0.9	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%																0.0
19-1	0.0%		31.4%	25.7%	5.7%	10.2									0.0		0.0	0.0		0.0				0.0		7.7%
18-2	0.1%		63.9%	45.9%	18.0%	12.0											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0		33.3%
17-3	0.3%		38.5%	38.2%	0.3%	12.9											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0			0.2		0.5%
16-4	0.5%		19.6%	18.1%	1.6%	12.3												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.4		1.9%
15-5	1.1%		20.0%	19.3%	0.8%	13.9														0.1	0.1	0.1		0.8		0.9%
14-6	1.6%		12.5%	12.4%	0.1%	13.7													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	1.4		0.1%
13-7	2.7%		8.6%	8.6%		14.2													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	2.4
12-8	3.9%		5.7%	5.7%		14.7													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	3.7
11-9	5.3%		3.6%	3.6%		15.0														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	5.1
10-10	6.6%		2.3%	2.3%		15.5																0.1	0.1	6.4
9-11	8.7%		1.1%	1.1%		15.7																0.0	0.1	8.6
8-12	9.6%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.1	9.6
7-13	10.8%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.1	10.7
6-14	10.9%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	10.9
5-15	10.6%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	10.6
4-16	10.1%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	10.1
3-17	7.8%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	7.8
2-18	5.4%																							5.4
1-19	2.9%																							2.9
0-20	1.0%																							1.0

Total	100%		1.8%	1.7%	0.0%	14.3									0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.5	98.2		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.3%